Muddying the Tracks: The State-Sponsored Shadow Behind Chaos Ransomware

Executive summary In early 2026, a sophisticated intrusion initially appearing to be a standard Chaos ransomware attack was assessed to be consistent with a targeted state-sponsored operation. While the threat actor operated under the banner of the Chaos ransomware-as-a-service (RaaS) group, forensic analysis revealed the incident was a "false flag" masquerade. Technical artifacts, including a specific code-signing certificate and Command-and-Control (C2) infrastructure, suggest with moderate confidence that this activity is linked to MuddyWater (Seedworm), an Iranian Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) affiliated with the Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS). The campaign was characterized by a high-touch social engineering phase conducted via Microsoft Teams, where the attackers utilized interactive screen-sharing to harvest credentials and manipulate Multi-Factor Authentication (MFA). Once inside, the group bypassed traditional ransomware workflows, forgoing file encryption in favor of data exfiltration and long-term persistence via remote management tools like DWAgent. This report deconstructs the infection chain and analyzes the custom "Game.exe" Remote Access Trojan (RAT). Additionally, this explores the process by which MuddyWater is increasingly leveraging the cybercriminal ecosystem to provide plausible deniability for geopolitical espionage and prepositioning, particularly in the US. The strategy highlights the convergence between state-sponsored intrusion activity and criminal tradecraft, where a big “tell” lies in the techniques that were deployed – and those that weren’t. This overall strategy suggests the primary goal was not financial gain. It is also further proof of the lines blurring against the background of geopolitical tensions, and that attribution is becoming more difficult if teams do not take it upon themselves to conduct proper and thorough research. Rapid7 coverage Rapid7 has coverage for this campaign across both intelligence and detection workflows. The campaign is available in Rapid7’s Intelligence Hub , providing customers with curated context, indicators, and threat actor tradecraft to support awareness, investigation, and prioritization. Relevant detections are also available in InsightIDR, helping security teams identify activity associated with this intrusion pattern across their environments. Chaos ransomware: Profile and targeting Active since February 2025, Chaos is a ransomware-as-a-service (RaaS) operation specializing in big-game hunting (BGH) attacks against high-profile organizations, with reported ransom demands reaching up to $300,000. Despite the name, it is distinct from the Chaos malware builder identified in 2021. The group emerged shortly after the July 2025 law enforcement disruption of BlackSuit infrastructure during Operation Checkmate and is likely composed of former BlackSuit and/or Royal members. To expand its operations, Chaos advertises its affiliate program on cybercrime forums, such